Jason's blog

Sunday, April 20, 2008

http://sydneypeakoil.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=13&t=283&sid=9ff792d00d9bc6849425a5435800c951

[b]Reminder: This is for North America only. [/b]

Coal:
http://sydneypeakoil.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=13&t=265

Don't come to Canada for coal. We only have 0.7% of world coal supplies. Coal imports won't last long especially with peak oil.
[quote]It is also important to note that ‘peak coal exports’ should come even earlier, as lower-energy-density coals are not worth transporting long distances.[/quote]
http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/2396

Natural Gas:
[quote]
A. I recently submitted an academic article on that with a graduate student in Chicago. We see about 2007 as the peak date for North American natural gas production.One of the interesting things with natural gas, though, is that the technology is so good that reserves are being depleted much faster. This means the peak may hold out a little longer, maybe even until 2008, then it will be followed by an even sharper fall.[/quote]
http://www.energybulletin.net/11789.html

More: http://sydneypeakoil.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=13&t=282

And one more unconventional source: [quote]The Barnett Shale is known as a "tight" gas reservoir, indicating that the gas is not easily extracted. The shale is very hard, and it was virtually impossible to produce gas in commercial quantities from this formation until recent improvements were made in hydraulic fracturing technology and horizontal drilling, and there was an upturn in the natural gas price.[/quote]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barnett_Shale


Don't think about importing natural gas in a world of peak oil. LNG is particularly expensive to import and terminals are limited.
[b]
Reminder: This is not only for North America but also for the world. [/b]

Oil: (Self-explanatory)

Uranium: http://sydneypeakoil.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=13&t=184

Everything else is either not developed yet or they are simply not cheap to produce. Clearly, we have gone past the point of cheap non-renewable energy resources in North America. Conclusion from my research: All conventional non-renewable resources have peaked in North America.

For the world, our cheap coal and cheap natural gas can last just around another decade.

You may or may not want to sticky this. It's been a long time since I've posted an ultimate summary post.

The USA, being the second largest producer, have already passed peak production of high quality coal in 1990 in the Appalachian and the Illinois basin. Production of subbituminous coal in Wyoming more than compensated for this decline in terms of volume and – according to its stated reserves – this trend can continue for another 10 to 15 years. However, due to the lower energy content of subbituminous coal, US coal production in terms of energy has already peaked 5 years ago – it is unclear whether this trend can be reversed.

http://peakoil.com/fortopic28299.html
http://www.energywatchgroup.org/files/Coalreport.pdf

More evidence from TheOilDrum:
USA
The USA, then, as we have all heard, has reported proven coal reserves that would allow continued production at current rates for more than 200 years. Three federal states (Wyoming, Montana, Illinois) hold about 60% [4] of US coal reserves, but the low production rates relative to reported reserves in Montana and Illinois cast some doubt on the reliability or suitability of those reported reserves. As many of these reserves are of low quality, with high sulphur content and/or other drawbacks, it may be considered doubtful that they will ever be produced. Measured in terms of produced tons per miner, US productivity steadily increased until 2000, but has declined since, which also implies that ‘easy coal’ is running short.

The USA had passed peak production of anthracite (by far the rarest form) by 1950 and peaked in bituminous coal in 1990, but sub-bituminous coal more than made up for this decline in terms of tonnage. However, due to the lower energy content of softer coals, the total energy content of annual US coal production peaked in 1998.

http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/2396

Included in natural gas resource estimates are:

* Associated resources – discovered along with oil fields, through drilling for oil.
* Non-associated resources – free flowing natural gas discovered without petroleum.
* Tight gases – natural gas in dense shale or sandstone deposits that requires extensive drilling and fracturing to recover.
* Coal bed methane – gas released from coal deposits that again requires extensive drilling and fracturing to recover.

http://energybulletin.net/2332.html

Q: “Your forecasting back in 2001 on natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico appears to have been pretty close to the mark. Where do you see North American natural gas production headed between now and 2020?”

A: Back then, I was on the pessimistic side, but maybe I wasn’t pessimistic enough.
By 2006, slightly over half of Lower-48 gas was already coming from unconventional gas sources, including tight sandstones, coal-bed methane, deepwater and ultra-deepwater. We’re moving towards more and more marginal resources. Getting more increases after 2015 seems unlikely. Texas gas production has been increasing pretty consistently this decade, and Barnett shale has been a big contributor. We’re getting a boost in gas from the Independence Hub in the Gulf, but how long-lived will production from those wells be? My guess is not very long. I don’t yet see anything comparable coming on line soon. In Canada, coal-bed methane isn’t panning out the way they thought it would. About 25% fewer wells will be drilled in Canada this year, due to a combination of high costs and low gas prices. So I’m quite sure North American natural gas production will not be higher in 2020 than it is today. It could be lower by some degree, maybe as much as 10% to 20%.

http://energybulletin.net/35504.html

And North America is increasingly relying on them. There's one more and that is sour gas.

The peak in global production was achieved in 1980, amounting to 69 683 tU from 22 countries. In 2003, uranium production totaled 35 600 tU from 19 countries.

http://www.world-nuclear.org/sym/2006/vance.htm

In general, global uranium mining has decreased since 1991, but development in the individual countries varies considerably. Whereas Australia increased its uranium generation by 1.7 times, uranium production in Western Europe has been almost completely suspended. France, for instance, has markedly reduced its share since 1997 and now produces only about one fifth of the uranium quantity of 1991. Canada has occupied the leading position in global uranium mining for many years.

http://www.euronuclear.org/info/encyclopedia/u/uranium-mining-global.htm

Peak uranium production reached 12 million pounds per year in 1980 declining to less than 2 million pounds per year during the last few years of depressed uranium prices.

http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0EIN/is_2005_Feb_23/ai_n10019842

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